TCT-ECO-008 · Taxes & trade
Tariffs could replace the federal income tax
Statement and context
Asked whether he was serious about “getting rid of income taxes and replacing it with tariffs,” Trump replied, “Yeah, sure, why not?”
October 25, 2024, The Joe Rogan Experience.
What the evidence shows
In FY2024, individual income taxes produced roughly $2.4 trillion while customs duties produced about $77 billion. Replacing income-tax revenue at unchanged import levels would require an arithmetically enormous average tariff; in practice, the tax base would shrink as imports fell and prices and supply chains adjusted. The exact effects depend on policy details that were not supplied.
Prediction—not yet verifiable. It is a prospective policy claim, not a completed result; available fiscal totals show that existing tariff revenue is nowhere near the revenue to be replaced.
Sources and attribution
Tracker research synthesis; inspect the linked evidence and research record.