TCT-ECO-022 · DOGE
Eliminating “fraud, waste and theft” would defeat inflation and lower mortgages, car payments and groceries
Statement and context
“By slashing all of the fraud, waste and theft we can find, we will defeat inflation, bring down mortgage rates, lower car payments and grocery prices…”
March 4, 2025, address to a joint session of Congress.
What the evidence shows
Lower federal deficits can, all else equal, reduce aggregate demand and long-term rate pressure. But mortgage rates also reflect expected inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, credit risk, and market conditions; grocery prices depend on commodity, labor, energy, weather, disease, trade and supply chains. No published administration estimate tied verified DOGE savings to the enumerated price reductions, and CBO later estimated the 2025 reconciliation law would increase deficits.
Prediction—not yet verifiable. It states a future causal outcome without magnitudes or a testable deadline; available fiscal evidence does not establish that DOGE alone produced it.
Sources and attribution
Tracker research synthesis; inspect the linked evidence and research record.